TY  - JOUR
TI  - Value of a Scheduled Duration Quantified in Terms of Equivalent Numbers of Historical Cases
AB  - Probabilistic estimates of case duration are important for several decisions on and soon before the day of surgery, including filling or preventing a hole in the operating room schedule, and comparing the durations of cases between operating rooms with and without use of specialized equipment to prevent resource conflicts. Bayesian methods use a weighted combination of the surgeon's estimated operating room time and historical data as a prediction for the median duration of the next case of the same combination. Process variability around that prediction (i.e., the coefficient of variation) is estimated using data from similar procedures. A Bayesian method relies on a parameter, τ, that specifies the equivalence between the scheduled estimate and the information contained in the median of a certain number of historical data.  METHODS:    Times from operating room entrance to exit ("case duration") were obtained for multiple procedures and surgeons at 3 U.S. academic hospitals. A new method for estimating the parameter τ was developed.
DO  - https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0b013e318291d388
SP  - 205
EP  - 210
UR  - http://journals.lww.com/anesthesia-analgesia/Abstract/2013/07000/Value_of_a_Scheduled_Duration_Quantified_in_Terms.31.aspx
PY  - 2013-01-01
JO  - Anesthesia & Analgesia
AU  - Dexter, F. 
AU  - Ledolter, Johannes 
AU  - Tiwari, V. 
AU  - Epstein, R 
ER -