Quotation Strulik, Holger, Prettner, Klaus, Prskawetz, Alexia. 2013. The Past and Future of Knowledge-based Growth. Journal of Economic Growth. 18 411-437.




This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns negative during economic development. This “population-productivity reversal” explains why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth—when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries—are better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation External
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Journal of Economic Growth
Citation Index SSCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new FIN-A, VW-A, WH-B
Language English
Title The Past and Future of Knowledge-based Growth
Volume 18
Year 2013
Page from 411
Page to 437
Reviewed? Y
URL https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10887-013-9098-9
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-013-9098-9
Open Access N


Prettner, Klaus (Details)
Prskawetz, Alexia (Vienna University of Technology, Austria)
Strulik, Holger (University of Göttingen, Germany)
Department of Economics (Crespo Cuaresma) (Details)
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