Quotation Bloom, David E., Chen, Simiao, Kuhn, Michael, McGovern, Mark, Oxley, Les, Prettner, Klaus. 2020. The Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases: Estimates and Projections for China, Japan, and South Korea. Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 17 (10016)




We propose a novel framework to analyze the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases. We incorporate measures of disease prevalence into a human capital augmented production function, which enables us to determine the economic burden of chronic health conditions in terms of foregone gross domestic product (GDP). Unlike earlier frameworks, this approach allows us to account for i) variations in human capital for workers in different age groups, ii) mortality and morbidity effects of non-communicable diseases, and iii) the treatment costs of diseases. We apply our methodology to China, Japan, and South Korea, and estimate the economic burden of chronic conditions in five domains (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental health conditions). Overall, total losses associated with these diseases over the period 2010–2030 are (measured in real USD with the base year 2010) estimated to be $7.7 trillion for China, $3.5 trillion for Japan, and $1 trillion for South Korea.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation External
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Journal of the Economics of Ageing
WU-Journal-Rating new VW-D
Language English
Title The Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases: Estimates and Projections for China, Japan, and South Korea
Volume 17
Number 10016
Year 2020
Reviewed? Y
URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X18300744
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.09.002
Open Access N


Prettner, Klaus (Details)
Bloom, David E. (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, United States/USA)
Chen, Simiao (University of Heidelberg, Germany)
Kuhn, Michael (Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria)
McGovern, Mark (Queen's University Belfast, United Kingdom)
Oxley, Les (University of Waikato, New Zealand)
Department of Economics (Crespo Cuaresma) (Details)
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