Schramm, Hans-Joachim, Munim, Ziaul Haque. 2019. Container freight rate forecast integrating soft facts. 24th IAME 2019 Conference, Athen, Griechenland, 26.06.-28.06.
BibTeX
Abstract
This study presents a novel approach to forecast freight rates in container shipping by integrating soft facts in form of information about sentiments, perceptions and/or confidence regarding past, present and/or future market activity as exogenous variables with the Far East to Northern Europe trade route under consideration. As a base case, we used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and compared this with the ARIMAX and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modelling approach including soft facts. We found that incorporating the Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) by Transport Intelligence into ARIMAX model improved forecast performance greatly. Hence, it seems that a sampling of sentiments, perceptions and/or confidence from a panel of actors active in the container shipping market that comes close to nowcasting have a higher predictive power compared to hard facts. Moreover, we argue that this approach of including such soft facts can improve forecast performance on other trade routes, too, and probably allows a detection of market changes and/or economic development much earlier than hard facts, because the later are all quantitative measures collected mostly from past times.
Tags
Press 'enter' for creating the tagPublication's profile
Status of publication | Published |
---|---|
Affiliation | WU |
Type of publication | Paper presented at an academic conference or symposium |
Language | English |
Title | Container freight rate forecast integrating soft facts |
Event | 24th IAME 2019 Conference |
Year | 2019 |
Date | 26.06.-28.06. |
Country | Greece |
Location | Athen |
URL | https://www.dept.aueb.gr/en/iame2019 |
Associations
- People
- Schramm, Hans-Joachim (Details)
- External
- Munim, Ziaul Haque (USN, Norway)
- Organization
- Department of Global Business and Trade DP (Details)
- Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
- 5300 Economics (Details)
- 5332 Transport economics (Details)
- 5336 Commodity science (Details)
- 5337 World trade science (Details)
- 5344 Foreign trade (Details)
- 5354 Business logistics (Details)