Quotation Čapek, Jan, Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus. 2020. We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 82 (3), 483-502.


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Abstract

We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size of the fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multipliers estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation. The cumulative effects of such arguably innocuous methodological choices can lead to a change in the spending multipliers of as much as 0.4 points.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Citation Index SSCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new FIN-A, VW-C, WH-B
Language English
Title We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers
Volume 82
Number 3
Year 2020
Page from 483
Page to 502
Reviewed? Y
URL https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/obes.12351
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12351
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/obes.12351

Associations

People
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus (Details)
External
Čapek, Jan (Masaryk University, Czech Republic)
Organization
Institute for Macroeconomics IN (Details)
Competence Center for Sustainability Transformation and Responsibility WE (Details)
Research Institute for Cryptoeconomics FI (Details)
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