Quotation Pfaff, Katharina Gabriela. 2019. Assessing the risk of pre-existing grievances in non-democracies: The conditional effect of natural disasters on repression. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.


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Abstract

Every disaster carries the risk of destruction but not every disaster prompts violent political process in a country. This article examines the popular argument that natural disasters can lead to higher state violence if resulting shocks caused by a disaster add to pre-existing grievances. If economic inequality or political instability is prevalent before a disaster occurs, disasters are expected to exacerbate the perceived threat to government's survival in office. Consequently, repression is expected to be higher in the aftermath of a disaster. I test the existence of the expected conditional effect of pre-disaster stability and disasters using cross-national data on natural rapid-onset disasters in non-democracies between 1976 and 2013. As indicators for pre-existing grievances this article focuses on ex ante economic inequality and political dissent. While a natural disaster as such is not associated with a violation of human rights, empirical evidence suggests that the probability of an increase in post-disaster repression is higher when a country has previously experienced grievances.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Citation Index SCI
Language English
Title Assessing the risk of pre-existing grievances in non-democracies: The conditional effect of natural disasters on repression
Year 2019
Reviewed? Y
URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919300354
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101337
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919300354

Associations

People
Pfaff, Katharina Gabriela (Details)
Organization
Institute for Sociology and Social Research IN (Details)
Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5117 Conflict research (Details)
5325 Political economics (Details)
5405 Empirical social research (Details)
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