Quotation Breuss, Fritz. 2018. Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria? Journal of Business Cycle Research, 14 (1), 105-126.


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Abstract

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria’s Great Recession in 2009. For this purpose, eight DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models; closed and open economy models; one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO’s expert forecasts performed comparable or better than most DSGE models in the crisis.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Journal of Business Cycle Research
Language English
Title Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?
Volume 14
Number 1
Year 2018
Page from 105
Page to 126
Reviewed? Y
URL https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41549-018-0025-1
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-018-0025-1
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41549-018-0025-1
JEL C11 C32 C53 E32 E37

Associations

People
Breuss, Fritz (Details)
Organization
Institute for International Economics IN (Details)
Research areas (ÖSTAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5115 European integration (Details)
5334 Political economic policy (Details)
5344 Foreign trade (Details)
5371 Macroeconomics (Details)
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