Quotation Lukmanova, Elizaveta, Tondl, Gabriele. 2017. Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone. Economic Modelling 62, 130-144.


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Abstract

This paper investigates a new category of influential factors on business cycle synchronization (BCS), so far hardly regarded in the BCS literature. It provides an empirical assessment of the impact of macroeconomic imbalances, as monitored by the European Commission by the scoreboard indicators since 2011, on BCS in the Euozone. We use a quarterly data set covering the period 2002–2012 and estimate the direct and indirect effects of macroeconomic imbalances in the pre- and post-crisis period in a simultaneous equations model. Business cycle correlation between EA members is measured by the recently proposed dynamic conditional correlation of Engle (2002) which can better identify synchronous and asynchronous behaviour of BC than the commonly used measures. We find that appearing differences between EA members in current account, in government deficit and public debt, in private debt and unit labor cost developments have reduced BCS in the EA, even more in the post-crisis period than before. Moreover, these explanatory factors of BCS, generally reinforce each other and are also influenced by other critical macro imbalances. Since BCS is essential in a monetary union, this paper provides clear support that a stronger, common economic governance would be important for the functioning and survival of the Eurozone.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Economic Modelling
Citation Index SSCI
WU Journalrating 2009 A
WU-Journal-Rating new VW-D
Language English
Title Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone
Volume 62
Year 2017
Page from 130
Page to 144
Reviewed? Y
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.01.004
JEL E32 E60 E61 F45 C33

Associations

Projects
Macroeconomic Imbalances and Business Cycle Convergence in the EU
People
Lukmanova, Elizaveta (Former researcher)
Tondl, Gabriele (Details)
Organization
Institute for International Economics IN (Details)
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