Quotation Lutz, Wolfgang, Muttarak, Raya. 2017. Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model. Nature Climate Change 7, 177-184.




In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation External
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Nature Climate Change
Citation Index SSCI
Language English
Title Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model
Volume 7
Year 2017
Page from 177
Page to 184
Reviewed? Y
URL https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3222
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3222


Lutz, Wolfgang (Former researcher)
Muttarak, Raya (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Austria)
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Demography Group AB (Former organization)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Former organization)
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital SO (Former organization)
Research areas (ÖSTAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
1162 Statistics (Details)
5404 Demography (Details)
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