Oberdabernig, Doris Anita, Humer, Stefan, Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus. 2018. Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 65 (2), 154-185.
BibTeX
Abstract
We analyse the nature of robust determinants of differences in democracy levels across countries taking explicitly into account uncertainty in the choice of covariates and spatial spillovers. We make use of recent developments in Bayesian model averaging to assess the effect of a large number of potential factors affecting democratisation processes and account for several specifications of spatial linkages. Our results indicate that spatial spillovers are present in the data even after controlling for a large number of geographical covariates. Addressing the determinants of democracy without modelling such spillovers may lead to flawed inference about the nature of the determinants of democratisation processes. In particular, our results emphasise the role played by Muslim religion, population size, trade volumes, English language, natural resource rents, GDP per capita, being a MENA country and the incidence of armed conflicts as factors affecting democracy robustly.
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Status of publication | Published |
---|---|
Affiliation | WU |
Type of publication | Journal article |
Journal | Scottish Journal of Political Economy |
Citation Index | SSCI |
WU Journalrating 2009 | A |
WU-Journal-Rating new | VW-D |
Language | English |
Title | Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty |
Volume | 65 |
Number | 2 |
Year | 2018 |
Page from | 154 |
Page to | 185 |
Reviewed? | Y |
DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12140 |
Open Access | N |
Associations
- People
- Oberdabernig, Doris Anita (Former researcher)
- Humer, Stefan (Former researcher)
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus (Details)
- Organization
- Institute for Macroeconomics IN (Details)
- Research Institute for Human Capital and Development
FI
(Former organization)
- Competence Center for Sustainability Transformation and Responsibility WE (Details)
- Economics of Inequality FI (Details)