Quotation Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus, Lutz, Wolfgang. 2016. The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 13 (2015), 241-262.




We propose a methodological framework aimed at obtaining projections of the Human Development Index (HDI) that can be used to assess the degree of vulnerability of future societies to extreme climatic events. By combining recent developments in the modeling and projection of population by age, sex, and educational attainment, our modeling set-up ensures that the different components of the HDI are projected using a self-contained, consistent modeling effort. We develop scenarios that correspond to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and thus present a projection framework that can be used to expand the evaluation of the potential mitigation and adaptation challenges associated with climate change in general, and with vulnerability to natural disasters in particular.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Language English
Title The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise
Volume 13
Number 2015
Year 2016
Page from 241
Page to 262
Reviewed? Y
URL http://hw.oeaw.ac.at/?arp=0x00344f59
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2015s241


Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus (Details)
Lutz, Wolfgang (Former researcher)
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Demography Group AB (Former organization)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Former organization)
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital SO (Former organization)
Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
1162 Statistics (Details)
5404 Demography (Details)
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