Quotation Lutz, Wolfgang. 2013. Demographic Metabolism: A Theory of Socioeconomic Change with Predictive Power. PAA Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Vereinigte Staaten/USA, 10.04-13.04. Invited Talk




Inspired by the work on social change through generational/cohort replacement of Karl Mannheim and Norman Ryder, who coined the notion of Demographic Metabolism, this paper suggests the application of the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to forecast the changing composition of the population by relevant individual characteristics that go far beyond the traditional age, sex and place of residence. This theory can make quantitative predictions of socioeconomic change with only a narrow margin of uncertainty for decades into the future. The paper gives two examples of predictions based on this theory: one for the hard and sticky characteristic of highest educational attainment and another for the soft and more volatile characteristic of European identity. This new theory has the potential to finally providing the social sciences with a paradigm with true (quantitative) predictive power for decades into the future.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Paper presented at an academic conference or symposium
Language English
Title Demographic Metabolism: A Theory of Socioeconomic Change with Predictive Power
Event PAA Annual Meeting
Year 2013
Date 10.04-13.04
Country United States/USA
Location New Orleans
URL http://paa2013.princeton.edu/abstracts/131978
Invited Talk Y


Lutz, Wolfgang (Former researcher)
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Demography Group AB (Details)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Former organization)
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