Quotation Striessnig, Erich, Lutz, Wolfgang. 2013. Can below-replacement fertility be desirable? Empirica 40 (3): 409-425.




In this paper, we challenge the widespread notion that replacement level fertility is the most desirable level of fertility both for countries currently above and below this level. We discuss possible alternative criteria for choosing one fertility level over another. In accordance with earlier studies, we focus on age dependency as the sole criterion. But we do so by relaxing the strong assumption that all individuals of a given age are equal in terms of their economic contribution to society and introduce education as probably the most relevant observable source of population heterogeneity. Our criterion variable is the education-weighted support ratio and we perform thousands of alternative simulations for different constant levels of fertility, starting from empirically given populations. If education is assumed to present a cost at young age and results in higher productivity during working age, then for most countries the desirable long-term total fertility rate turns out to be well below replacement level.


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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Empirica
Citation Index SSCI
Language English
Title Can below-replacement fertility be desirable?
Volume 40
Number 3
Year 2013
Page from 409
Page to 425
Reviewed? Y
URL http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10663-013-9213-3


Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
Striessnig, Erich (Former researcher)
Lutz, Wolfgang (Former researcher)
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Demography Group AB (Former organization)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Former organization)
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