Dexter, F., Ledolter, Johannes, Tiwari, V., Epstein, R. 2013. Value of a Scheduled Duration Quantified in Terms of Equivalent Numbers of Historical Cases. Anesthesia & Analgesia 117 (1), 205-210.

RIS

@ARTICLE{Dexter2013,
title = {Value of a Scheduled Duration Quantified in Terms of Equivalent Numbers of Historical Cases},
author = {F. Dexter and Johannes Ledolter and V. Tiwari and R Epstein},
year = {2013},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0b013e318291d388},
url = {http://journals.lww.com/anesthesia-analgesia/Abstract/2013/07000/Value_of_a_Scheduled_Duration_Quantified_in_Terms.31.aspx},
volume = {117},
number = {1},
language = {EN},
pages = {205-210},
journal = {Anesthesia & Analgesia},
abstract = {Probabilistic estimates of case duration are important for several decisions on and soon before the day of surgery, including filling or preventing a hole in the operating room schedule, and comparing the durations of cases between operating rooms with and without use of specialized equipment to prevent resource conflicts. Bayesian methods use a weighted combination of the surgeon's estimated operating room time and historical data as a prediction for the median duration of the next case of the same combination. Process variability around that prediction (i.e., the coefficient of variation) is estimated using data from similar procedures. A Bayesian method relies on a parameter, τ, that specifies the equivalence between the scheduled estimate and the information contained in the median of a certain number of historical data. METHODS: Times from operating room entrance to exit ("case duration") were obtained for multiple procedures and surgeons at 3 U.S. academic hospitals. A new method for estimating the parameter τ was developed.},
}