Quotation Dexter, F., Ledolter, Johannes, Tiwari, V., Epstein, R. 2013. Value of a Scheduled Duration Quantified in Terms of Equivalent Numbers of Historical Cases. Anesthesia & Analgesia 117 (1), 205-210.




Probabilistic estimates of case duration are important for several decisions on and soon before the day of surgery, including filling or preventing a hole in the operating room schedule, and comparing the durations of cases between operating rooms with and without use of specialized equipment to prevent resource conflicts. Bayesian methods use a weighted combination of the surgeon's estimated operating room time and historical data as a prediction for the median duration of the next case of the same combination. Process variability around that prediction (i.e., the coefficient of variation) is estimated using data from similar procedures. A Bayesian method relies on a parameter, τ, that specifies the equivalence between the scheduled estimate and the information contained in the median of a certain number of historical data. METHODS: Times from operating room entrance to exit ("case duration") were obtained for multiple procedures and surgeons at 3 U.S. academic hospitals. A new method for estimating the parameter τ was developed.


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Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Anesthesia & Analgesia
Citation Index SCI
Language English
Title Value of a Scheduled Duration Quantified in Terms of Equivalent Numbers of Historical Cases
Volume 117
Number 1
Year 2013
Page from 205
Page to 210
URL http://journals.lww.com/anesthesia-analgesia/Abstract/2013/07000/Value_of_a_Scheduled_Duration_Quantified_in_Terms.31.aspx
DOI https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0b013e318291d388


Ledolter, Johannes (Former researcher)
Dexter, F.
Epstein, R
Tiwari, V.
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
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