Quotation Lutz, Wolfgang. 2012. Demographic Metabolism: A Theory of Socioeconomic Change with Predictive Power. IIASA Interim Report.


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Abstract

Inspired by the work on social change through generational/cohort replacement of Karl Mannheim and Norman Ryder - who coined the notion of Demographic Metabolism - this paper suggests the application of the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to forecast the changing composition of the population by relevant individual characteristics that go far beyond the traditional age, sex and place of residence. It is claimed that unlike many so-called theories in the social-sciences - which mostly are classification schemes - this model actually meets the falsifiability criteria of Popper and Lakatos that the latter distinguishes a theory from "pseudoscience." As presented here, this theory can make quantitative predictions of socioeconomic change with only a narrow margin of uncertainty for decades into the future. The paper gives two very different examples of predictions based on this theory: one for the hard and sticky characteristic of highest educational attainment where higher human capital of the future labor force is safely predicted for countries that recently experienced expansions in school enrollment and another for the soft and more volatile characteristic of European identity which shows significant inter-cohort increases that will likely result in a higher future prevalence of a European identity in addition to a national one among the electorate of the EU. This new theory has the potential to finally providing the social sciences with a paradigm with true (quantitative) predictive power for decades into the future.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Miscellaneous
Language English
Title Demographic Metabolism: A Theory of Socioeconomic Change with Predictive Power
Source IIASA Interim Report
Year 2012
URL http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-12-009.pdf

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People
Lutz, Wolfgang (Details)
Organization
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Demography Group AB (Details)
Research Institute for Human Capital and Development FI (Details)
Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
5404 Demography (Details)
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