Quotation Dexter, F., Dexter, E., Ledolter, Johannes. 2010. Influence of Procedure Classification on Process Variability and Parameter Uncertainty of Surgical Case Durations. Anesthesia & Analgesia 110, 1155-1163.


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Abstract

Predictive variability of operating room (OR) times influences decision making on the day of surgery including when to start add-on cases, whether to move a case from one OR to another, and where to assign relief staff. One contributor to predictive variability is process variability, which arises among cases of the same procedure(s). Another contributor is parameter uncertainty, which is caused by small sample sizes of historical data. Process variability was quantified using absolute percentage errors of surgeons' bias-corrected estimates of OR time. The influence of procedure classification on process variability was studied using a dataset of 61,353 cases, each with 1 to 5 scheduled and actual Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes (i.e., a standardized vocabulary). Parameter uncertainty's sensitivity to sample size was quantified by studying ratios of 90% prediction bounds to medians. That studied dataset of 65,661 cases was used previously to validate a Bayesian method to calculate 90% prediction bounds using combinations of surgeons' scheduled estimates and historical OR times.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Anesthesia & Analgesia
Citation Index SCI
Language English
Title Influence of Procedure Classification on Process Variability and Parameter Uncertainty of Surgical Case Durations
Volume 110
Year 2010
Page from 1155
Page to 1163
URL http://www.anesthesia-analgesia.org/content/110/4/1155.abstract
DOI https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0b013e3181d3e79d

Associations

People
Ledolter, Johannes (Former researcher)
External
Dexter, E.
Dexter, F.
Organization
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
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