Quotation Leitner, Christoph, Zeileis, Achim, Hornik, Kurt. 2010. Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EURO 2008. International Journal of Forecasting 26 (3): 471-481.


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Abstract

doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.001 Different methods for assessing the abilities of participants in a sports tournament and their corresponding winning probabilities for the tournament, respectively, are embedded into a common framework and compared with respect to their predictive performance. First, rat- ings of abilities (such as the Elo rating) are complemented by a simulation approach yielding winning probabilities for the full tournament. Second, tournament winning probabilities are extracted from bookmakers odds using a consensus model and the underlying abilities of the competitors are derived by \inverse" application of the tournament simulation. Both tech- niques are employed for forecasting the results of the European football championship 2008 (UEFA EURO 2008) for which the consensus model based on bookmakers odds outperforms methods based on the Elo rating and the FIFA/Coca Cola World rating. Moreover, the book-maker consensus model correctly predicts that the final would be played by teams Germany and Spain (with a probability of about 20:5%) while showing that both finalists profit from being drawn in groups with relatively weak competitors.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal International Journal of Forecasting
Citation Index SSCI
WU-Journal-Rating new STRAT-C, VW-D, WH-B
Language English
Title Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EURO 2008
Volume 26
Number 3
Year 2010
Page from 471
Page to 481
URL http://statmath.wu.ac.at/~zeileis/papers/Leitner+Zeileis+Hornik-2010.pdf

Associations

People
Leitner, Christoph (Details)
Zeileis, Achim (Former researcher)
Hornik, Kurt (Details)
Organization
Institute for Banking and Finance IN (Former organization)
Institut f. Präsides SO (Details)
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Research Institute for Computational Methods FI (Details)
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