Quotation Leitner, Christoph, Zeileis, Achim, Hornik, Kurt. 2009. Bookmaker Consensus and Agreement for the UEFA ChampionsLeague 2008/09. Research Report Series, Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Report 88.


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Abstract

Bookmakers odds are an easily available source of "prospective" information that is thus often employed for forecasting the outcome of sports events. To investigate the statistical properties of bookmakers odds from a variety of bookmakers for a number of different potential outcomes of a sports event, a class of mixed-effects models is explored, providing information about both consensus and (dis)agreement across bookmakers. In an empirical study for the UEFA Champions League, the most prestigious football club competition in Europe, model selection yields a simple and intuitive model with team-specific means for capturing consensus and team-specific standard deviations reflecting agreement across bookmakers. The resulting consensus forecast performs well in practice, exhibiting high correlation with the actual tournament outcome. Furthermore, the teams' agreement can be shown to be strongly correlated with the predic

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Working/discussion paper, preprint
Language English
Title Bookmaker Consensus and Agreement for the UEFA ChampionsLeague 2008/09
Title of whole publication Research Report Series, Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Report 88
Year 2009
URL http://epub.wu-wien.ac.at/dyn/virlib/wp/showentry?ID=epub-wu-01_f35&from=NEW&style=blank

Associations

People
Leitner, Christoph (Details)
Zeileis, Achim (Former researcher)
Hornik, Kurt (Details)
Organization
Institute for Banking and Finance IN (Former organization)
Institut f. Präsides SO (Details)
Institute for Statistics and Mathematics IN (Details)
Research Institute for Computational Methods FI (Details)
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