Quotation Huber, Christoph, Huber, Jürgen, Hueber, Laura. 2019. The effect of experts’ and laypeople’s forecasts on others’ stock market forecasts. Journal of Banking & Finance. 109 105662




With a large-scale online experiment with 1593 participants from the U.S. and the U.K. we explore whether and how people working in the finance industry and laypeople from the general population are influenced by information on other people’s forecasts when making forecasts on the future development of two indices and two stocks. We find that (i) laypeople’s forecasts are strongly influenced by information they get on other subjects’ forecasts, while financial professionals are much less influenced by information signals; (ii) signals by financial professionals influence all subject groups more than forecasts by laypeople; (iii) we observe a home bias in all subject groups, which can be mitigated by information signals; (iv) all subject groups expect lower forecast errors for financial professionals than for laypeople, hence we find evidence for trust in experts.


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Status of publication Published
Affiliation External
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Journal of Banking & Finance
Language English
Title The effect of experts’ and laypeople’s forecasts on others’ stock market forecasts
Volume 109
Year 2019
Page from 105662
Reviewed? Y
URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426619302377?via%3Dihub
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105662
Open Access N


Huber, Christoph (Details)
Huber, Jürgen (University of Innsbruck, Austria)
Hueber, Laura (University of Innsbruck, Austria)
Institute for Markets and Strategy IN (Details)
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