Quotation Naqvi, Syed Ali Asjad, Monasterolo, Irene. 2021. Assessing the cascading impacts of natural disasters in a multi-layer behavioral network framework. Scientific Reports. 11 (20146)


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Abstract

Natural disasters negatively impact regions and exacerbate socioeconomic vulnerabilities. While the direct impacts of natural disasters are well understood, the channels through which these shocks spread to non-affected regions, still represents an open research question. In this paper we propose modelling socioeconomic systems as spatially-explicit, multi-layer behavioral networks, where the interplay of supply-side production, and demand-side consumption decisions, can help us understand how climate shocks cascade. We apply this modelling framework to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability following a negative food-production shock in one part of an agriculture-dependent economy. Simulation results show that vulnerability is cyclical, and its distribution critically depends on the network density and distance from the epicenter of the shock. We also introduce a new multi-layer measure, the Vulnerability Rank (VRank), which synthesizes various location-level risks into a single index. This framework can help design policies, aimed to better understand, effectively respond, and build resilience to natural disasters. This is particularly important for poorer regions, where response time is critical and financial resources are limited.

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Publication's profile

Status of publication Published
Affiliation WU
Type of publication Journal article
Journal Scientific Reports
Citation Index SCI
Language English
Title Assessing the cascading impacts of natural disasters in a multi-layer behavioral network framework
Volume 11
Number 20146
Year 2021
Reviewed? Y
URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-99343-4.pdf
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99343-4
Open Access Y
Open Access Link https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-99343-4

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Naqvi, Syed Ali Asjad (Details)
Monasterolo, Irene (Details)
Organization
Institute for Ecological Economics IN (Details)
Research areas (Ă–STAT Classification 'Statistik Austria')
1133 Computer-aided simulation (Details)
2928 Environmental economics (Details)
5323 Econometrics (Details)
5353 Environmental economics (Details)
5368 Sustainable development, sustainable economics (Details)
5924 Environmental economics (Details)
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